October Heat Holds On but a Sharp Change Is Coming

As a result of a broad and persistent area of high pressure, the October summer will continue over the coming days, covering most of the current week. From Monday through Thursday, conditions will be predominantly sunny and relatively calm. Morning temperatures will range from 8°C to 13°C, while afternoons will be warm, with temperatures between 20°C and 25°C on Monday, rising to 27–28°C in the second half of the week. The period will be marked by an extremely high fire risk across the country. Prolonged dry conditions and unusually high temperatures for this time of year are creating the potential for large fire fronts to ignite rapidly and prove difficult to contain.

Early forecasts suggest that this dry and fire-prone spell will be interrupted around October 10, as a cold atmospheric front moves through. On Friday and Saturday, brief, localized showers are expected, with locally intense rainfall at times, along a line extending from northwest to east. On Sunday, more substantial cloud cover is expected over the mountains and along the coast. Northwestern winds will strengthen, but temperatures will not drop dramatically. By Saturday and Sunday, they are expected to range between 20°C and 25°C.

The preliminary forecasts indicate a noticeable drop in temperatures around mid-October. Daytime temperatures are then expected to fall to 12–17°C, with morning temperatures dropping below 5°C in some parts of the country. Conditions will become favorable for frost.

At the same time, some weather models are forecasting the development of a low-pressure area over the Mediterranean. If this scenario materializes, several days of rainfall are possible, with locally significant amounts.