Bulgarian National Bank revises inflation and GDP growth forecast

The annual inflation rate in Bulgaria is expected to accelerate to 4% by the end of 2026, while the average annual inflation will reach 3.7%. That shows the baseline scenario in the spring edition of the Economic Review by the Bulgarian National Bank.

Real GDP growth is expected to slow to 3% by the end of the year, compared to 3.2% in 2025.

The BNB specifies that the analysis is based on data as of March 19, 2026 and does not fully reflect the effects of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, including disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and rising energy commodity prices.

Therefore, in the adverse scenario, average annual inflation is projected to be higher than in the baseline scenario by between 0.7% and 1.4%.